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Margin Sandwich · visualization preview

Four visualizations for Part II. Toggle locale to verify both renderings before wiring into /blog/margin-sandwich-ii-en and -cn.

V1Where the services dollar actually goes

Same mid-complexity memo, two business models. Both bars scaled to $1 so you can compare share directly.

Traditional top-tier firm$4,050 billedAI-native firm$1,500 billedAssociate laborPartner / senior reviewOverhead & GTMMarginAssociate laborPartner / senior reviewOverhead & GTMMargin$1$0Both bars scaled to $1; band size is share. The ribbons connect the same line item across the two models.
Move your cursor over any band to see the actual dollar amount on each side
Numbers from article footnotes [^1] through [^4]; the split is the author's own model. Hover any band to see the real dollar amount.

V2The three-layer margin sandwich

The floor takes a fixed cut on every call. The middle gets squeezed from both sides. The ceiling captures the premium from selling outcomes. Tile size tracks valuation; hover any tile for ARR, multiple, and how they charge.

Ceiling · AI-native full-stack firms
55–67× forward-ARR multiples on SaaS-like ceiling leaders
Harvey
$11B
Legora
$5.55B
Sierra
$10B
Crosby
$400M
EvenUp
$2B
Basis
$1.15B
Hebbia
$700M
Middle · squeezed from both sides
Wrappers clearing · Legacy platforms compressed · 54,836 AI-cited layoffs in 2025, share in this tier
AI wrappers (being cleared out)
Jasper
$1.2B
Robin AI
$150M
Legacy platforms (being squeezed)
Bloomberg Terminal
$60B
Capital IQ
$30B
FactSet
$15B
Datasite
$3B
Intapp
$5B
Floor · model companies and compute
Combined ~$55B ARR · $433B hyperscaler capex (2025) · $600B+ (2026 guide)
OpenAI
$500B
Anthropic
$183B
Floor · model companiesMiddle · legacy platformsMiddle · AI wrappersCeiling · AI-nativeTile width tracks valuation. Hover to see ARR, multiple, and how each firm charges.
Data as of April 2026. Valuations drawn from Sacra, SaaStr, Forbes, Reuters, Bloomberg, and TechCrunch. See article footnotes [^6], [^7], [^9].

V4Which slices of professional services rip first

8 verticals across 5 regions. Darker cells are easier for AI-native firms to disrupt. The inner square grows with the local market size.

1 · holds up
5 · gets ripped
Legal$940BAccounting$675BConsulting$359BTax$290BAudit$260BM&A advisory$52BIT services$1.4TBPO$350BNorth Americaavg 3.444342244Europeavg 3.133†342244Chinaavg 3.54†43†43†3†3†4India / SEAavg 4.045343†3†55Other APACavg 2.9333†32243†3.63.83.03.82.42.44.04.0
Move your cursor over any cell to see the reasoning. Cells marked † are the author's own call, not a single source.
Triangulated from Thomson Reuters 2025, McKinsey and BCG 2024–2025, HSBC 2026, CPA.com 2025, Wolters Kluwer 2025, Goldman Sachs, Felten/Raj/Seamans AIOE, IMF 2025, PCAOB 2025 speeches, and Deloitte APAC. Cells marked † are the author's own triangulation rather than a single published source.

V5The frontier doesn't stay cheap for long

Prices on a log scale. The commodity line just keeps falling. The frontier line doesn't — every new generation pushes it back up. The shaded gap between them is the premium frontier charges, and it hasn't closed.

Frontier modelsCommodity modelsFrontier premium gap
$0.1$0.5$1$2$5$10$20$50Blended $ per million tokens (log scale)20222023202420252026GPT-3 davinci-002GPT-4 8KGPT-4 TurboClaude 3 OpusGPT-4oo1-previewClaude Opus 4o3GPT-5Claude Opus 4.5Claude Opus 4.712× drop over 29 months
Move your cursor over any dot for the release date, price, and note. Watch the frontier line: it doesn't just fall — each new generation pushes it back up.